[SMM Analysis] US $800 / ton Foreign Alumina Price reaches an all-time High, rising Logic and Future trend

SMM4 21:

Rusal's annual report for 2017 shows that Rusal's alumina sales in 2017 were 2.018 million tons. In 2017, its electrolytic aluminum production was 3.707 million tons and alumina production was 7.773 million tons. according to the calculation of aluminum consumption per ton of alumina, the excess alumina was 620000 tons. In the short term, due to the occurrence of Rusal sanctions, the alumina sales of Rusal have been blocked, the international alumina circulation has been blocked, and the price has increased at a faster rate. In the medium to long term, Rusal's sanctions have led to a relative reduction in overseas alumina supplies of 620000 tons, or 52000 tons a month.

Supply and demand of Alumina abroad

Before the Hydro incident, the supply of overseas alumina was already tight. according to IAI data, the shortage of supply and demand of overseas alumina exceeded 200000 tons per month in January and February 2018, according to the calculation of 1.93 tons of aluminum oxide consumption per ton of aluminum oxide. It can be seen that a monthly reduction of 267000 tons of overseas alumina will aggravate the aggravation of overseas alumina shortage. The occurrence of Rusal sanctions is to aggravate the liquidity of the overseas alumina market in the short term to decline sharply, and in the medium to long term to substantially increase the shortage of foreign alumina.

Where is the inflection point of the rally

To sum up, as a result of the Hydro incident and the Rusal incident, the monthly reduction in overseas alumina reached 319000 tons. Among them, the reduction caused by the Hydro incident occupies the main factor, the turning point of foreign alumina price rise: 1, Hydro resumes full production, the time is expected to take 3 months; 2. domestic alumina exports have made up for the gap abroad. according to SMM, China has exported 30, 000 tons of alumina, which is expected to increase in the future, but is expected to be up to 100000 tons a month; 3. the electrolytic aluminum plant has been forced to reduce production because of the shortage of alumina supply. at present, the albras electrolytic aluminum plant in Hydro has reduced its production by 230000 tons / year. in view of the high price of aluminum ingots abroad, the possibility of reducing production in the short term is low.

(SMM Luo Qiaoling 021 = 51666863)